A few days ago I discovered cadCAD while researching token engineering, and in a fit of sudden creativity, I coded up two simulations to life’s questions that had been subtly bothering me.
I know I’ll get a lot of flak from people about the dating simulator, even from dating coaches I took advice from, where making a simulation is “thinking too much” to them. But being able to put hard numbers on my expectations is the biggest thing I never knew I was missing.
What is it?
It’s a framework to make testing simulations of complex systems easier.
Or more specifically: you write your actors and strategies and environmental conditions. cadCAD turns this into a pandas.DataFrame and runs the simulation a number of times for you, letting you switch easily between simulation strategies.
Lifesim
Lifesim 2 – a job search situation simulator
Your bank account balance over 3 years, assuming you keep living expenses at 1800EUR and you look for 3 jobs per month between jobs
Suppose the following:
* You’re looking for a job.
* Your monthly expenses are 1800EUR.
* You have a 20% chance of getting a job once you’ve applied for it (IRL this means personal contact, not sending your resume somewhere)
* Most jobs pay around 3000EUR +- 2000EUR.
* Each month, a job has a 10% chance of firing you.
* You can afford to make 2-3 personal connections per month that lead to jobs.
* Your minimum criteria: job must pay at least your monthly living expenses.
What will your bank account look like in 3 years?
To play with the numbers, set up Jupyter notebook and the Python virtual environment with requirements.txt.
Takeaways
To guarantee that your balance will be positive in 3 years, you must look for jobs which pay 2 * monthly living expenses, and you must meet 2-3 people who can provide such jobs per month.
Girlsim
Suppose you’re a 5. How many girls should you ask out per day, and how choosy can you be, to have a satisfactory dating life?
Girlsim – how choosy can you afford to be?
If you’re an ‘8’ who only dates ‘7s and up’, here’s your dating history over 30 lifetimes, assuming you’ve asked out 1000 girls (each colour is a different lifetime)
Critical assumptions
- By definition, most girls are 5 in hotness. Sorry if I burst any princess bubbles.
- Women of hotness x prefer hotness x+1 (some prefer less actually, but that’s another discussion).
- Even if you move to a city where you find most girls hot, after a few months you will grow accustomed.
- You meet an 8 just about as frequently as other people meet their 8s. That is, it doesn’t matter what an 8 actually looks like.
- Chemistry is modeled by secret Chemistry numbers. If they match up (around 5-10% chance, or 1-2/20), you have chemistry.
Defining Success
Personally, “the feeling of sexual abundance” is important, i.e. you’re not desperate to cling on to her because she’s the only girl who’ll like you back in a long long time.
There are 2 ways of defining this. Pick one.
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1000 girls is 1 year of asking out 3 girls a day. At least 1 girl a month is a reasonable expectation.
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The hotness distribution of girls who accepted you must look like a normal distribution, not discrete.
Takeaways
- Don’t be choosy. If you’re a 5 who only dates 7s, you’ll spend most of your time being desperate/insecure in a relationship, or lonely.
- Even if you do end up becoming a ‘9’ through hard work and upgrading your wardrobe, you’ll still mostly date 5s and 6s. Why? simple, there are more of them around.
- Improving your looks really makes a big difference, but it is no guarantee that you will end up with a hot girl. But it’s okay. There are many dimensions to women other than ‘hotness’.